Short-Term vs Long-Term Rental Market: What Investors Need to Know in 2025

Explore the risks facing short-term rentals in 2025 and why long-term rentals offer more stability for today’s real estate investors.

Short-Term vs Long-Term Rental Market

Short Term vs Long Term Rentals

Short-term rentals (STRs) have long been a go-to for investors chasing high returns, fueled by the rise of platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo. But in 2025, the landscape is shifting—fast. What once seemed like a goldmine is now showing signs of instability, as STR investors across the country face skyrocketing insurance premiums, declining occupancy, and stricter local regulations.​

With some experts predicting that 1.5 and 2.3 million former short-term rental properties will return to the long-term housing market over the next 24 to 36 months, real estate investors are facing a historic turning point. For those seeking stability, long-term rentals (LTRs) are emerging as the more resilient strategy—and platforms like Realbricks, focused on LTRs in recession-resistant markets like Omaha, are well-positioned to lead the way.​

Why STRs Were So Attractive in the First Place

Short-term rentals took off in the 2010s, offering:​

  • Higher nightly rates than long-term leases​
  • Flexible usage for owners
  • Tax benefits and depreciation​
  • Booming travel demand post-COVID​

At the peak of the STR boom, investors were achieving impressive cash-on-cash returns, fueled by low interest rates and travel demand surges. But with shifting market dynamics, many of those returns are no longer sustainable.​

Why STR Insurance Rates Are Skyrocketing

One of the biggest pain points for STR owners in 2025 is rising property insurance. According to the Insurance Information Institute, average annual premiums in high-risk states like Florida, Louisiana, and Oklahoma now exceed $2,100. Many STR investors report even steeper increases—sometimes over 100%—particularly in tourist-heavy or disaster-prone regions. In some areas, insurance carriers are limiting or withdrawing STR coverage altogether due to high claims and risk exposure.

Why?

  • Frequent claims: STRs are treated more like businesses than homes. With constant guest turnover, properties are more prone to damage, liability claims, and theft.​
  • Poor property behavior: Parties, misuse, and vandalism are frequent enough that many insurers view STRs as high-risk.​
  • Limited historical data: Many insurers still consider STRs a new asset class and haven’t built models to assess long-term risk effectively.​
  • Natural disaster exposure: STRs in popular vacation destinations are often located in flood, hurricane, or wildfire zones, compounding risk.​

These factors are driving many carriers to either increase premiums dramatically—or exit the STR market altogether.​

The Data Behind the STR Collapse

A widely circulated investor analysis compiled from sources like AirDNA, Redfin, and private mortgage data paints a stark picture:​

Factor Impact
Occupancy Drop National STR occupancy fell to 48.3% in 2024 (down from 61.7% in 2022)
Insurance Premiums Up 34–150% nationally for STRs
Local Regulations Over 340 cities introduced new STR restrictions since 2023
Market Saturation STR listings rose 23.8%, while demand fell 12.4% YoY
Loan Pressure $318B in STR-related loans face refinancing through 2026
STR to LTR Conversions Up 19.2% in the past 6 months

Cities at Highest Risk

Markets with high STR density are particularly vulnerable to price drops if these properties flood the resale market.​

According to AirDNA and Bloomberg:​

City STR Saturation
Gatlinburg, TN 43.7%
Myrtle Beach, SC 38.2%
Panama City Beach, FL 36.1%
Scottsdale, AZ (Old Town) 38%
Sedona, AZ 32.4%

Short term rentals are crashing

Why Omaha, Nebraska Is Different

Amid this uncertainty, Omaha stands out as a real estate market built on long-term fundamentals. Here’s why:​

  • Low STR Exposure: Only 0.62% of Omaha’s housing stock is used as short-term rentals (AirDNA, 2024), making it far less vulnerable to STR-related disruptions.​
  • Recession-Resistant: Forbes named Omaha “The Best City to Move to in 2024”, citing its affordability, job growth, and quality of life.​
  • Strong Rental Demand: Omaha’s 3.2% annual population growth fuels consistent housing demand.​
  • Landlord-Friendly Market: No rent control, fair eviction laws, and stable property taxes.​

These attributes align with nearly every key metric smart investors should look for when evaluating a market.​

STR vs. LTR: Which Model Offers More Stability?

Metric Short-Term Rentals Long-Term Rentals
Occupancy Rates Highly seasonal, often below 50% Consistently 90%+ in stable markets
Insurance Costs Increasing dramatically, some carriers exiting More predictable and lower on average
Maintenance Frequent guest turnover = more wear and tear Fewer tenants = lower ongoing maintenance
Cash Flow Consistency Varies widely by season and occupancy Steady, predictable monthly income
Regulatory Risk Subject to bans, limits, and new taxes Generally stable regulatory environment
Market Saturation Risk High in tourist-heavy areas Lower risk in steady-growth markets like Omaha
Financing Challenges Heavily impacted by interest rate fluctuations Easier to underwrite stable returns

Final Thoughts

The short-term rental model delivered strong returns during its peak, but the current environment reveals deep structural vulnerabilities—from rising insurance costs and falling occupancy rates to looming loan resets. While some markets will weather the storm, others may face sharp corrections as investor-owned properties hit the market all at once.

Long-term rentals, on the other hand, continue to offer consistent returns, lower volatility, and fewer regulatory surprises—especially in recession-resistant cities like Omaha.

For investors looking to protect their capital and grow it over time, shifting focus to long-term rental properties in stable markets may be one of the smartest strategies of the decade.

Here are four Realbricks properties available now:

Property Type Price Monthly Rent Est. Dividend Yield
Stag Single-Family $360,000 $2,750 6.00%
Dalmore Single-Family $360,000 $2,750 6.00%
Blanton Single-Family $360,000 $2,750 6.00%
Woody Creek Single-Family $319,998 $2,000 6.00%

These homes are already rented and professionally managed, offering projected quarterly dividends without the unpredictability of short-term guests.

Get started with Realbricks in just 5 minutes.

Disclaimer: Investing in real estate involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Investors should perform their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.